2021 Q1 Market Update
May 20, 2021 – 5 Minute Read
Hello everybody, Q1 2021 market update here including a condensed video format version! Let’s jump right in! Q1 ended with historical lows in inventory for Austin with prices spiking 11% and ONLY about 1800 homes on the market for sale! We are in uncharted territory regarding negotiations and competition as a result. Buyers are waiving every Buyer right to be competitive. Cash, appraisal waivers, massive down payments if financing, and so on. In multiple offers, it’s 20% over list to win on average and active listings are down 74% year-over-year.
- Tier-1 homes (priced right, no major flaws and wow factor) sold within days with multiple offers and average of 15-20% over list price. In some cases, higher.
- Tier-2 properties (mostly a Tier-1 but with one flaw such as needing cosmetic updates) averaged 1 week on the market 10-15% over list price.
- Tier-3 (major issues or work) sat on the market 30 days and sold at list or within 10% of list price.
- $0-$500k We are at .2 months or less supply, down from 1 month at eo Q4. Up 15% ytd on pricing.
- $500k-$1M We’re at a 1 month supply. Down also from Q4 by 1 month. I’m projecting 15% for the year.
- $1m-$2m We’re at a 3 month supply. I’m projecting 15%+ appreciation for the year.
- $2m+ – Strongest luxury market I’ve ever seen in Austin with the even higher numbers of folks from coastal markets. Literally zero supply. Will be up 15-20% by eoy.
- Company relocations or expansions – In Q1, 52 companies relocated or announced expansions into Austin bringing 8k jobs and only 20% of those were led by the big boys ie Amazon or Tesla.
- In-migration – We had 55k people move to Austin in 2019 and have been #1 in population growth for the last 8 years. 2020 ended with 70K people moving here! Massive pressure on housing.
- Supply Chain Issues – Builders had massive materials shortages and lumber costs spiraled out of control in 2020. As a result, home builders produced 20-30% of capacity. This led to major new construction shortage adding even more pressure to the resale market. Builders are on 100-200 people waitlists.